September Import Window Opened, Copper Wire Rod Exports Declined [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest customs data, in September 2024, China's exports of copper wire with a maximum cross-sectional dimension >6mm reached 4,084.7 mt, down 27% MoM and approximately 9.6% YoY (HS code 74081100).

Companies reported that the price comparison effect is the main factor affecting export volumes. Specifically, at the end of Q1 2024, imports turned to losses, and March export volumes increased by 47% MoM. By Q2, the import window was tightly closed, especially on May 20 when the import profit dropped to -1,904 yuan/mt, prompting companies to increase export volumes. In May, copper wire rod exports reached 7,253 mt, setting a new high for the year. However, entering Q3, the import window reopened, improving import conditions, and export volumes declined significantly. In particular, September export volumes fell to the lowest level since July. Looking ahead to October, as the import window is expected to remain open and overseas demand is generally weak, copper wire rod export volumes in October are unlikely to increase.

In September 2024, half of the top ten export destinations were Southeast Asian countries, with most showing a declining trend. The declines in the Philippines and Thailand were particularly notable. Meanwhile, driven by Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," copper wire rod exports to Saudi Arabia continued to grow, rising to the third position. In contrast, exports to South Korea decreased significantly, with total exports for 2023 at 1,780 mt, but only 100 mt in the first three quarters of 2024. According to company feedback, the overall market performance in South Korea this year has been poor, and the bankruptcy of many real estate companies has led to a significant reduction in demand for copper wire rods.